Sunday, August 29, 2010

Dow's Final Days Above 10,000

After a volatile summer in U.S. equities, the stock market finally looks exhausted--it has fought the hard fight for months and gotten nowhere.  A 1 1/2 month rally from early July through mid-August was wiped out completely in a matter of weeks.  Now we are entering the always dangerous months of September and October--historically the most difficult months of the year for the stock market.  Technical analysis shows us to be at the beginning of another major downtrend, and I fear this is one we will not soon recover from.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently above the all-important 10,000 level, but just barely.  The trend will be lower--much lower.  It may not be a crash, but more likely a slow, painful slide back down to March 2009 levels and, perhaps, even lower.  It could take a few years, and it will take even longer for the 10,000 level to be reached to the upside once again.  Everyone out there currently holding equities, mutual funds, ETFs--any investment tied to the stock market--should ask themselves this question:  can I afford for my investments to lose half their value again, and is there anything I can do to avoid that fate?