Ha ha, a play on the CNBC segment with Jim Cramer they call "Stop Trading! with Jim Cramer". Just take out the "Trading!" and "with" part, and you have a more logical title. Really this is just an attention getter--I hope it worked for someone. Not that anyone will likely read this blog, but if you are reading it and you do take what I have to say seriously, you could save yourself some pain and some money.
This is the 1st part of a 5 part series I have written about the future of world stock markets between now and 2013. The next 4 parts break it down by year. Read on...
Look, Jim Cramer is wrong but he's not the only one. He's just the most visible one. A former successful hedge fund manager/trader who has become a caricature of his former self. "Confessions of a Street Addict" is a phenomenal book and I put it up there with Michael Lewis's "Liar's Poker" in terms of an insiders look at Wall Street. But if you are listening to advice from that guy, you may as well be burning your money in a garbage can. You are better off making 1.29% in a savings account than you are investing in the stock market right now. Have you seen what has happened the past month and a half? Do you think the market is really going to rebound? It might, but it won't last.
There's no sense in elaborating and rambling on--just read on! Read the next 4 parts to this series. It will take you 15 minutes tops, probably much less time. If you think I'm full of it and have no clue, then go on with your life. If you feel like taking my warning to heart, you may thank yourself a few years from now...
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Prediction: 2010
I'm not going to spend a lot of time on 2010 because it's almost half over. Having said that, I think we've learned a lot lately from the way the market has acted so far this year. We've seen three phases: sell-off to start the year in January and February, then a remarkable and illogical rally that brought the market to new highs not seen since 2007 this April, followed by a sharp (yet very necessary) correction at the end of April and through May. I think we've hit a support level at around 1050 on the S&P 500, but it won't hold up for very long. After a brief rally, I see the correction continuing through the summer until a new rally emerges either in August or sometime in the fall. This will be a last gasp effort by the bulls to push the market to new highs. It will fail. There is simply no fundamental justification for a new bull market at this time. There are way too many issues that must be addressed over the next few years before the world will enter a new era of prosperity and market gains (likely coupled with major inflation). In any case, I'm not really a technical analysis kind of investor--I dabble in it, but I'm not an expert on it, so I'm not going to get any more specific than that with regard to 2010. I could be wrong and a last attempt at a rally could start sooner. If that happens, we could see a major correction at the end of the year. To summarize and generalize, in the end it will be more profitable to be a bear in 2010.
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Prediction: 2011
Another volatile week in world stock markets. Bailout in Europe leads to an excuse to cover short positions and a snap-back rally the first part of the week. This gave those of us who see a correction materializing the chance to get out of any long positions and re-position for the sell-off that is coming. A lot of world markets and many commodities are looking very weak right now. I wouldn't want to be long anything at the moment, other than gold, silver, and the U.S. dollar.
But that is the short term outlook. In the longer term, I see serious roadblocks and hazards emerging in the next 6 months and beyond. This will lead to the realization toward the end of this year that we are not out of the woods yet--not even close. 2011, unfortunately, will be ugly. I have zero faith that this recession is truly over, although many will have you believe that. "Time to buy back in, catch the train before it leaves the station, load up your mutual funds." It makes me ill when I hear such poor advice. Unless you are loading up on precious metals, don't bother. Stay in cash, sell and take profits--get out of the market by the end of this year, or you could see your positions cut in half in 2011. Yes, that's right, I said cut in half!
The market is not the place to be. Not the U.S., not China, not Europe, not Brazil. Not right now and not until the recession is truly over. If you read the next two posts, you'll see that I don't expect that to happen until the end of 2012 or even 2013. Do yourself a favor and let everything play out before you buy back into this market. If you've made a profit or recovered some losses in the past year's rally, good for you! Take profits, open up a money market account, buy a CD even though you're only making a couple percent. Do anything, just don't keep your money in the stock market--any stock market!
2011 will be rough. If there is going to be a market "crash" or major sell-off in the next three years, I believe it will occur in 2011. I have no confidence that it will take that long, though, and I would guard against a 2010 crash as well. Don't listen to the news. Don't believe the media's claim that the recession is over. Do not buy back in now. It's too late--this rally is over and 2011 is looming. Fear is an emotion that sometimes can't be trusted when it comes to investing. Right now it's time to trust your fear.
But that is the short term outlook. In the longer term, I see serious roadblocks and hazards emerging in the next 6 months and beyond. This will lead to the realization toward the end of this year that we are not out of the woods yet--not even close. 2011, unfortunately, will be ugly. I have zero faith that this recession is truly over, although many will have you believe that. "Time to buy back in, catch the train before it leaves the station, load up your mutual funds." It makes me ill when I hear such poor advice. Unless you are loading up on precious metals, don't bother. Stay in cash, sell and take profits--get out of the market by the end of this year, or you could see your positions cut in half in 2011. Yes, that's right, I said cut in half!
The market is not the place to be. Not the U.S., not China, not Europe, not Brazil. Not right now and not until the recession is truly over. If you read the next two posts, you'll see that I don't expect that to happen until the end of 2012 or even 2013. Do yourself a favor and let everything play out before you buy back into this market. If you've made a profit or recovered some losses in the past year's rally, good for you! Take profits, open up a money market account, buy a CD even though you're only making a couple percent. Do anything, just don't keep your money in the stock market--any stock market!
2011 will be rough. If there is going to be a market "crash" or major sell-off in the next three years, I believe it will occur in 2011. I have no confidence that it will take that long, though, and I would guard against a 2010 crash as well. Don't listen to the news. Don't believe the media's claim that the recession is over. Do not buy back in now. It's too late--this rally is over and 2011 is looming. Fear is an emotion that sometimes can't be trusted when it comes to investing. Right now it's time to trust your fear.
Saturday, May 8, 2010
Prediction: 2012
If this last week's action in world stock markets tells us anything, it's that you shouldn't listen to the media. While rosy reports came in from numerous companies, jobs report data looked fantastic, and Larry Kudlow, Jim Cramer, and other talking heads spoke about the re-emergence of the U.S. economy, stock markets tanked. Failure to use common sense to consider that the stock market was WAY overbought is leading to some horrible predictions. Like Mr. Cramer's insistence that the Dow Jones industrial average is going to 12,000. We'll see 8,000 before we see 12,000.
Which takes me to my prediction, this time for the year 2012. I'm worried about 2012. I truly hope that the U.S. in 2012 does not resemble Greece in 2010, but I honestly have no real confidence that things are going to be back to business as usual by then. In fact, 2012 could very well be worse than 2008, in the stock market and in the economy. Take a quick minute or two to read Robert Kiyosaki's article in Yahoo Finance: 2010: The Best of Times or the Worst? . Mr. Kiyosaki is not someone whom I would consider betting against. In my opinion, his predictions could not only come true, but could also carry over well into 2012. His next Yahoo article was entitled, "Doing the Dead Cat Bounce," also a must read.
I hate to even bring this up, because anyone who reads this will probably think I'm nuts, but I don't believe anyone really reads this anyway so here goes: December 21, 2012. Whether the Mayans actually predicted the world would end on this day, or they simply couldn't read their calendar after this date, I have no idea. Leave that up to the scholars to debate. All I know is that "Y2K" caused many people to panic, so why shouldn't people fear the Mayan prediction as well? Especially if we experience economic and political turmoil in the year 2012, leading up to December 21.
World stock markets are going to suffer over the next few years. Gold will likely see new highs. Why not just wait it out? Keep your hard earned money, your nest egg, your retirement account in cash or gold. Buy some Japanese Yen, perhaps. Just don't own any stocks. On December 22, 2012, buy back in. Do some buying on the Hong Kong exchange, open a brokerage account with Peter Schiff's company, buy some ETFs. You'll be happy you avoided another stock market erosion from 2010-2012 if you do this. Buy, hold, and diversify will truly be dead come 2012.
Which takes me to my prediction, this time for the year 2012. I'm worried about 2012. I truly hope that the U.S. in 2012 does not resemble Greece in 2010, but I honestly have no real confidence that things are going to be back to business as usual by then. In fact, 2012 could very well be worse than 2008, in the stock market and in the economy. Take a quick minute or two to read Robert Kiyosaki's article in Yahoo Finance: 2010: The Best of Times or the Worst? . Mr. Kiyosaki is not someone whom I would consider betting against. In my opinion, his predictions could not only come true, but could also carry over well into 2012. His next Yahoo article was entitled, "Doing the Dead Cat Bounce," also a must read.
I hate to even bring this up, because anyone who reads this will probably think I'm nuts, but I don't believe anyone really reads this anyway so here goes: December 21, 2012. Whether the Mayans actually predicted the world would end on this day, or they simply couldn't read their calendar after this date, I have no idea. Leave that up to the scholars to debate. All I know is that "Y2K" caused many people to panic, so why shouldn't people fear the Mayan prediction as well? Especially if we experience economic and political turmoil in the year 2012, leading up to December 21.
World stock markets are going to suffer over the next few years. Gold will likely see new highs. Why not just wait it out? Keep your hard earned money, your nest egg, your retirement account in cash or gold. Buy some Japanese Yen, perhaps. Just don't own any stocks. On December 22, 2012, buy back in. Do some buying on the Hong Kong exchange, open a brokerage account with Peter Schiff's company, buy some ETFs. You'll be happy you avoided another stock market erosion from 2010-2012 if you do this. Buy, hold, and diversify will truly be dead come 2012.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Prediction: 2013
Having neglected this blog for too long, it is now time for me to begin crafting something I have been thinking about for a while. I am going to write a 5 part series on the future of world stock markets and what we can expect in the next 3 years and beyond. I am beginning with 2013 because I would like to allow the one or two readers who actually look at this blog to be able to read it from top to bottom. So I'm going to write this in reverse order--this will be part 5 of 5.
2013 will be a fantastic year. I truly believe that it will be the beginning of a lot of great things to come in the world economy with political reform, economic reform, energy reform, and all sorts of other needed change taking place. It will also mark the beginning of the greatest bull market of this generation and beyond. Unfortunately, it will come to fruition due to the pain we are about to go through in 2011 and 2012, but this pain will only make us stronger. Those who anticipate and react the fastest, make the right financial moves, and position themselves correctly will be ready to profit and succeed in the new world economy.
I don't need to write about the great bull market that is coming. Peter Schiff has already written about this in "Crash Proof" and Jim Rogers talks and writes about it all the time ("A Bull in China" is one example). These are not my ideas. I'm not an economist like Peter Schiff or a billionaire like Jim Rogers, but I know that they are men worth listening to. The timing, 2013, is not something they have written about specifically, to the best of my knowledge, but is my prediction of when this new bull market will begin.
In April 1942, the Dow Jones Industrial average bottomed below 100. At that time a new bull market began and the 100 level on the Dow was never seen again. I believe that in 2013 the Dow will bottom again. Below 6,500 just like 2009, perhaps. Maybe lower, or maybe a little higher. I don't know the exact number, but I believe it will bottom along with other world markets. As Schiff and Rogers advise, however, I would rather be long Asia at that time than the United States. China, Hong Kong, Singapore, gold, silver, oil, commodities in general. These are the places to be in 2013, but I'll let you read Schiff and Rogers to determine that for yourself.
2013 will be a fantastic year. I truly believe that it will be the beginning of a lot of great things to come in the world economy with political reform, economic reform, energy reform, and all sorts of other needed change taking place. It will also mark the beginning of the greatest bull market of this generation and beyond. Unfortunately, it will come to fruition due to the pain we are about to go through in 2011 and 2012, but this pain will only make us stronger. Those who anticipate and react the fastest, make the right financial moves, and position themselves correctly will be ready to profit and succeed in the new world economy.
I don't need to write about the great bull market that is coming. Peter Schiff has already written about this in "Crash Proof" and Jim Rogers talks and writes about it all the time ("A Bull in China" is one example). These are not my ideas. I'm not an economist like Peter Schiff or a billionaire like Jim Rogers, but I know that they are men worth listening to. The timing, 2013, is not something they have written about specifically, to the best of my knowledge, but is my prediction of when this new bull market will begin.
In April 1942, the Dow Jones Industrial average bottomed below 100. At that time a new bull market began and the 100 level on the Dow was never seen again. I believe that in 2013 the Dow will bottom again. Below 6,500 just like 2009, perhaps. Maybe lower, or maybe a little higher. I don't know the exact number, but I believe it will bottom along with other world markets. As Schiff and Rogers advise, however, I would rather be long Asia at that time than the United States. China, Hong Kong, Singapore, gold, silver, oil, commodities in general. These are the places to be in 2013, but I'll let you read Schiff and Rogers to determine that for yourself.
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