Looking at charts this morning, I'm only noticing one bullish chart in the entire world (okay, I haven't looked at every chart in the world, but I did get a snapshot): the U.S. Dollar.
Yes, the U.S. Dollar Index has a bullish chart pattern. And nothing else! What does that mean? That means get your money out of the stock markets because institutional investors and rich guys and girls are selling heavily right now.
The only safe haven I see right now is the U.S dollar and any vehicle that bets against stock markets--put options, short ETFs, or outright shorting.
That's the trend.
Saturday, February 13, 2010
Monday, February 8, 2010
Monday
Wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a relief rally this week. World markets have generally sold off the past 4 weeks in a row. Could see a bounce. Some may test their 50 day moving averages and overhead resistance. This test will likely fail and the downtrend should eventually resume.
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Talking Heads
Back after a long absence--personal circumstances forced me to focus on other things, but I've been watching and trading world markets the entire time. My call for the bull market to end in October was off the mark. We got a head fake sell-off in October followed by bullish action in November and December (despite distribution the entire time) until the new bear market that began the second week of January. Now it's look out beloooooow!
I cannot even turn on CNBC for 5 minutes without getting upset these days. I never watch it and then I turn it on last night, thinking the "traders" on Fast Money and that options show would be warning people and advising a large cash position. Instead, I hear these "experts" talking about buying the dips, how earnings reports at Cisco are looking good, and tech is going to lead the way! What the.....?
I don't understand this at all. Bad advice all the way around. At the very minimum, recognize that the U.S. market has broken through support levels and the uptrend line. Add that to a 10 month rally in a bad economic environment, world market indices that have in some cases already broken below their 200-day moving averages, and massive distribution in everything except for bonds, the U.S. dollar, the Japanese Yen, and....that's it. What does that look like to me? A new bear market, that's what it looks like to me.
I cannot even turn on CNBC for 5 minutes without getting upset these days. I never watch it and then I turn it on last night, thinking the "traders" on Fast Money and that options show would be warning people and advising a large cash position. Instead, I hear these "experts" talking about buying the dips, how earnings reports at Cisco are looking good, and tech is going to lead the way! What the.....?
I don't understand this at all. Bad advice all the way around. At the very minimum, recognize that the U.S. market has broken through support levels and the uptrend line. Add that to a 10 month rally in a bad economic environment, world market indices that have in some cases already broken below their 200-day moving averages, and massive distribution in everything except for bonds, the U.S. dollar, the Japanese Yen, and....that's it. What does that look like to me? A new bear market, that's what it looks like to me.
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